9.7.12

Best currency for our savings

You may be American, British, Spanish..., and certainly your own currency doesn't represent a risk for your wealth. In general, you are going to live in your own country and you are going to spend your savings there. If you live in USA and the dollar collapses, you will still pay in dollars (of course there will be major changes as the imports will get more expensive, etc).So, let's start saying that THE USE OF ANOTHER CURRENCY IS RISKY. The cross with our National currency could go up or down, and it's never easy. We shouldn't put too much money in other currencies (neither gold).

However, we all see the huge imbalances in USD, EUR, JPY..., and it makes sense to diversify our portfolio a bit. In which currencies? We all know the usual ones: CAD, SEK (Swedish Krone), AUD, NOK (Norwegian Krone), CHF... They are in much better shape than Europe, USA, or Japan. According to our model, the best options are AUD (with high interest rates and still a bit to run), and NOK (protected by the North Sea oil). CAD and Swiss franc are close to its fair price. Specially the Swissy could be really dangerous, because there is a lot of inner pressure to increase the value of the EURCHF (on the other hand, the markets are betting on the opposite).

The only one doubt we have comes from a personal perspective. All Australian people we know (and many tourists who travel there on vacation) think AUD is nuts, really overpriced. We try to be scientific, but sometimes it's worth it to have another view. Remember Argentina and Iceland...