12.3.19

This could be crazy, but...

... there is a lot of money to be made if we enter into a new recession in 1 or 2 years. By the way, this scenario is very likely.

If you have read simplynorisk.com during the last years, you know we don´t like bonds in general. However, there are some exceptions to this rule. For instance, we are experimenting with P2P lending or very specific perpetual bonds for certain moments of the market. In our public portfolio we don´t hold any bond with maturity longer than 2 years.

Imagine for a second that the FED and the ECB drop the interest rates to zero in the next year or years, what happens to a 10y bond? It goes up in price..., a lot. Some people don´t know how to manage bonds, and for these people a good idea could be to buy an ETF, such as BLV (US exposure, government and corporate) or IEGZ for the investor focused on Europe. There are many options, even with leverage (3x).

Just something to think about...