18.4.14

Russia is separated from...

... Europe, and they are going to fix it. First, they need Crimea. Easy, population feel safer being part of Russia, plus they can over support them. Second, they build the bridge that links Crimea and Russia (link to Kerch Bridge). With the bridge, they don't need to occupy the rest of Eastern Ukraine (however it would be really simple as well). They are more interested in the Odessa area. Probably "things" will happen there. The Russian support is not very clear in Odessa, but it's the natural link to Romania. If it's not possible, they can always build the underwater connection (it was the original plan to take gas to Europe avoiding Russia: link). In any case, occupying Crimea kills two birds with one stone: they help themselves and delay or make much more expensive other options for the competitors.

It will take some time, however, Russia might think it would be nice to create a direct access to Poland (Germany) through Belarus...

I guess, at the end, it's all about blocking the European market to the rest of gas producers (like in Syria -Russia- vs. Qatar) and cheapening Russian costs.