27.12.20
Ripple, BTC and regulation
8.12.20
I don’t really know
Paul Krugman recently wrote an article in The New York Times basically advocating for high levels of National debt: Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Debt. Besides the political bias, his point was governments have managed adequately high levels of debt and “nothing” bad has happened.
The Covid crisis is going to be solved creating money and giving it away. Honestly, we are just a humble group of thinkers and don’t have all the answers. However, when we are in doubt we choose two approaches:
1. Follow the big movements. For instance, in investments, before choosing a company, we choose the sector and the country. At the end, even without considering all factors, if the sector has a solid future, geographically the area is doing better than the rest and the price you pay is decent, the investment tends to be successful.
2. Follow common earthy laws. When we see that I receive money for asking a loan, or that I have to pay interest for giving a loan, we feel something is crooked and will not end happily.
When governments can create as much money as they need with no limitation and inflation is under control, and people still trust the currency, we feel we are buying time, but something is wrong.
It is true that the time we buy can be enough. First, the worst currencies won’t be able to survive and suffer tremendously. We are seeing it today, for instance with the Turkish lira or the South African rand. But eventually the good ones will start feeling the pain as well. It is funny that the moment in history in which “size matters”, some countries are trying to go in the other direction (Brexit, independence movements in Spain...).
Highlanders moment?
28.9.20
Delaying gratification
Some people might think this is not a virtue, and they could be right. However, to become a young retiree you have to have it. One of them said that when he was a kid, instead of going to the playground or talking between classes, he prefered to advance his homework.
Delaying enjoyment is something that can be learnt by children. It will give them more freedom because those individuals who find it difficult to delay gratification will often find it intolerable to have to put off their enjoyment.
Deferred gratification is also related to impulse control. In fact, there is a link between addictive personality and the inability to delay gratification.
Besides, it can be used to increase motivation. For instance, people on a diet can have a day off to eat junk food if they have been compromised the days before.
Last, psychologists say it's better to seize the day, which probably is right, but, again, to retire young you have to have the capacity of "seizing the day" by thinking of the future. That is a double twist!
31.7.20
Presión fiscal vs. esfuerzo fiscal
15.7.20
Reminder: where and how to buy gold?
You feel gold is soaring..., at historical maxima in most currencies. For years, we have been advising that it would happen and some of you think that you missed it. Not so sure. The long-term perspective is brilliant, like gold itself. But in case you want to join the race, how do you buy it?
Very easy. We would give you some ideas here:
1. Go to your broker and buy an ETF of gold backed by physical gold. Many good ones. Just google it.
2. You can buy gold on/in the ground. How? You can buy gold mines. They are going to work as a mix between gold and the stock market. You can buy an ETF with several big ones, GDX, or small ones, GDXJ.
3. There is a beautiful and reliable program in Australia, called Perth Mint (link here). Check the list of distributors in your country.
4. Why not having bullions or non-numismatic coins directly? You can go to the shop or buy online. The only problem here is the storage (bank or private safe, house...). You do your maths.
5. Some firms offer the purchase and the storage in their safes under your name. It is a very efficient way of buying, but don’t feel confortable recommending specific names.
Remember if you hold stocks, it could be a good idea to own some gold, taking advantage of the negative correlation.
5.5.20
Caution...
1. Better dollars than euros. We see EURUSD < 1.
2. Gold is doing its job protecting us.
3. We are expecting a last movement down in the stock market under the previous minima. If that happens, it could be a good moment to buy the BEST stocks possible (see this post).
23.3.20
If we want to buy..., which stocks?
This is going to be a dense article, so let us start saying that these moments can be excellent to rebalance your portfolio and/or changing from funds to good shares.
Second question that arises is when we should start buying -please, again, if you believe the pandemic will get under control. We have not good solution for that. Be ready to receive the worst news in the US, etc.. Perhaps, starting in May, we can commence with a program of partial purchases. In any case, to find the best trigger, just remember:
“The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. Even if it is your own." Baron Rothschild.
Third, our target in SimplyNoRisk is not to get the best returns, but to suffer the least, therefore our stock picking is very defensive. We believe the following sectors can be good options:
Utilities: JXI ETF,
Healthcare: Parkway Life REIT, IXJ ETF,
Food and beverages: Diageo, Coca-Cola, XLP ETF
Technology: Alphabet, Verizon.
Others: Deutsche Post.
And to finish, please, don’t gamble: the travel industry is doomed. The recovery might not come for many cruise lines, airlines, hotels... Also be careful with malls, restaurants, bar chains.
17.3.20
Lo que pensamos de este mundo loco
27.1.20
Qaurum
Now there is a free simulator to play around: Qaurum. You just need to register and starting working with different environments, pre-defined or custom made.
At the end, the system will calculate the returns for gold so that offer and demand stay in equilibrium.
This is an excellent tool to improve the understanding of gold price movements.
9.1.20
eSIM
El iPhone 11 admite el uso de un solo chip físico y hasta 10 eSim. Sin embargo, solo puede tener activas simultáneamente 2, una primaria y otra secundaria, la física y una eSim. El resto pueden quedar guardadas para ser activadas cuando se considere conveniente.
Las eSim, al ser códigos, pueden ser compradas por internet y en minutos ser integradas en el teléfono ya que no hay que esperar la recepción de la tarjeta física por correo.
Una persona que planea un viaje a Tailandia, puede añadir una tarjeta eSim para tener datos en su estancia en Tailandia. Vamos a ver cómo puede realizar la compra.
1. Visite la página eSimDB donde podrá encontrar un comparador de las compañías más baratas. En este caso, por ejemplo, encuentra la empresa MySim que ofrece 8 Gb para ser usadas durante 20 días una vez activada por 22 dólares.
2. Se compra la tarjeta pagando con tarjeta o PayPal desde otro dispositivo u ordenador. Una vez realizada esta operación, la compañía ofrece un código de barras que se puede escanear desde el teléfono con capacidad eSim.
3. Al escanearse, se añade esta eSim al teléfono. Ojo: solo dejan un escaneado así que no lo eliminen del teléfono para poder realizar la operación de nuevo porque una vez integrado en el iPhone 11 el código caduca.
4. Cuando se aterrice en Tailandia, la eSim se activará automáticamente al no utilizar roaming y ser una tarjeta local.
Estos códigos eSim normalmente no ofrecen un número local, solo datos. No es un gran problema hoy en día por las llamadas con datos a través de Whatsapp o Viber.
Hay compañías que ofrecen coberturas por regiones (Europa, Asia...) o incluso mundial.
5.12.19
Lo “macro” afecta nuestra vida personal
Estamos terminando el año y quería escribir un artículo un poco más personal. Desconozco si es una percepción absolutamente sesgada o si, por el contrario, fuerzas económicas y sociales de mayor calado nos están marcando nuestras vidas personales sin, ni siquiera, ser conscientes nosotros de ello, pero este año 2019 ha sido para mucha gente próxima un período de enormes cambios profesionales y personales.
Ya sé que el lector pensará que es una pura coincidencia, pero cuanto más reflexiono sobre el asunto, más pienso que, en todos los casos donde se manifiesta una revolución íntima, existe una tormenta perfecta económico-social que la ha facilitado. Solo por poner un ejemplo, que una pareja rompa su relación puede provenir de la dificultad de uno de los miembros para desarrollarse profesionalmente, lo que le puede crear frustración y, a su vez, esta dificultad puede ser causada por un cambio de paradigma económico donde trabajos antes valorados ahora no lo sean tanto.
Sea la tesis anterior cierta o no, nos puede hacer pensar que hay que estar preparados para el cambio. Todos conocemos dichos como que “lo único constante es el cambio”, etc..., pero, ¿realmente estamos dispuestos para ello y lo hemos planificado?
Supongo que la clave es pararse y reflexionar en libertad buscando tendencias para situarnos cercanos a los ganadores, pero rara vez se realiza esta reflexión porque el día a día nos absorbe. Ante esta problemática, habría que forzar un retiro meditativo de unos días al año para resintonizarnos con el mundo que nos rodea y ser conscientes de la necesidad de alinearse con las nuevas tendencias.
23.10.19
Why is the Norwegian krone so weak?
Some analysts have tried to explain this paradox in terms of inflation. As the inflation in Norway was higher than in Europe, if we wanted to buy the same basket of products year after year, the currency with the higher inflation should weaken (PPP theory). In fact, we think it is part of the reason, but not totally. Inflation in Norway is surprisingly being lower than expected during this year, even with a bigger fall than the Euro Area.
In terms of interest rates, the Norges Bank has marginally been increasing them to a extremely low 1.5%, higher than the ones in the Euro Area though. If we add the soundness of the Norwegian finances, we think the EURNOK is too high. Probably, the exchange is controlled by Central Banks to avoid making the NOK the new Swiss franc. In any case, at today’s prices, it could be interesting to bet on the NOK strengthening.
9.10.19
SOCIMI
Para el ahorrador es una forma de tener exposición al mercado inmobiliario con poco dinero y sin preocupaciones. Tiene importantes beneficios fiscales que han hecho que incluso sea un tema que recientemente se tratara en la confección de los presupuestos del estado (enlace).
El problema de las SOCIMI es su falta de liquidez (muchas apenas realizan operaciones) y la ausencia de control por parte del inversor, ya que este se tiene que adherir a lo que decidan los gestores de la SOCIMI.
Aquí tienen un listado de SOCIMI:
https://www.bolsasymercados.es/mab/esp/SOCIMI/Listado.aspx
Miren lo que compra cada una. En unos casos serán inmuebles con malas perspectivas, en las afueras, centros comerciales venidos a menos, pero también tienen algunos con carteras más sólidas. Con las SOCIMI no todo vale.
14.9.19
Retirement planning
The time to start thinking about retirement is BEFORE we actually do it. There are two key elements: being realistic and involving our partners in the planning.
Of course there will be problems such as loss of identity, anxiety and boredom. The best shield against these hurdles is a combination of long-term and short-term planning. Prepare a bucket list of things to do, be more social, schedule trips with friends, create a gourmet group, join your favorite political party, spend time practicing sports... Each one of us knows what is best for us, but remember don’t wait until we face the problems, visualize it first, when everything is still cool and calm.
25.8.19
Happiness
On the other hand, our permanent portfolio has behaved amazingly well because of the rise in the price of gold. Gold is a great protection for stocks as it is shown in our book Against the Tide.
However, setting money aside, lately I’ve been thinking that the main purpose in life should be to achieve a reasonable level of happiness. It is not proportional to spend so much time improving our skills as money managers and not so much as happiness seekers. So, I’ve started from some interesting TED Talks about the link between happiness and strong relationships. Here you have a couple of talks: