18 years online

It’s hard to believe, but eighteen years have passed since the first post here. September 2007 feels both distant and familiar — a different world in many ways, yet one whose questions still resonate.

From the beginning, we never aimed to build an audience, sell a product, or chase clicks. We wrote because we wanted to think aloud — about money, risk, freedom, and how to live with a bit more intention. Over the years, that habit quietly shaped its own rhythm: one post after another, sometimes frequent, sometimes rare, but always genuine.

Reading back through old entries is a strange experience. Some ideas could have been written yesterday; others belong clearly to their time, tied to specific market moments or contexts that have long passed. Yet together they form a map — not of forecasts, but of curiosity and persistence. Eighteen years give perspective. They show that consistency matters more than perfection, that restraint often ages better than opinion, and that there’s value in keeping something independent and free of noise.

We’re proud that this space has remained what it was meant to be: personal, unhurried, and without shortcuts. No ads, no algorithms — just words, written when there’s something worth saying.

Here’s to what’s already been written, and to whatever still deserves to be said.

Rotation Theory: Gold vs. Stocks

Markets rarely move in straight lines. Over long cycles, leadership rotates from one asset class to another. For the past decade, stocks—especially U.S. large-cap technology—have strongly outperformed gold. That dominance has left equities, and particularly the S&P 500, trading at expensive valuations by historical standards.

Gold, on the other hand, has been largely ignored, yet it is starting to regain attention. Rotation theory suggests that when one asset has been stretched for too long, capital may begin to flow toward the alternative. If that pattern repeats, the next few years could see gold outperforming stocks.

Why investors are watching this shift

• Stock valuations, especially in the U.S., look elevated.
• Inflation and currency debasement risks increase demand for hard assets.
• Gold has a history of performing well when confidence in financial markets weakens.

Because of this, a number of investors are overweighting gold (through ETFs like GLD) and gold miners (through funds like GDX) relative to stocks. Some add silver into the equation.

A balanced perspective

Nothing in markets is certain. Gold may fail to outperform, or equities may continue their run. For investors who do not want to sell their stock portfolios outright, one approach is to reposition within equities—keeping exposure, but tilting away from the most overvalued parts of the market.

An alternative stock allocation for the non-gold part

As a thought experiment, here is one possible equity mix that avoids the most expensive U.S. growth stocks and instead emphasizes regions and sectors with more reasonable valuations:

Region / Sector	%	ETF	Rationale
Emerging Markets ex-China	25	IEMG	Growth from India, Mexico, Indonesia, lower valuations than U.S.
Japan	20	EWJ	Corporate reforms, attractive valuations, shareholder-friendly changes.
Europe (broad)	20	VGK	Exposure to developed Europe at cheaper multiples than U.S. peers.
Energy (global/US)	15	XLE / IXC	Hard assets, strong cash flows, hedge against inflation.
Industrials / Infrastructure	10	EXI	Benefiting from reshoring, defense spending, infrastructure projects.
Healthcare (defensive global)	10	IXJ	Stable demand, demographics, defensive anchor.

Final word

This is not advice, just theory. Rotation may or may not happen. But if gold does gain leadership over stocks, holding a mix of gold, gold miners, and a diversified set of reasonably valued equity sectors could be one way to stay balanced.

The AI job crisis. Solutions before disruptions

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our world, unlocking vast potential but threatening millions of livelihoods. The IMF’s 2024 analysis estimates that 40% of global jobs are at risk from AI, with up to 60% in advanced economies facing disruption. This isn’t just about factory workers—doctors, artists, and analysts face automation too. Past technological shifts created new roles, but AI’s speed and scope may overwhelm markets’ ability to keep up. If millions lose their jobs, societies could fracture, with economic instability inviting authoritarianism, as history warns.

Libertarian and Austrian economics, with their trust in individual ingenuity over state control, offer a way forward, but we need specific, practical solutions—not just faith in markets—to ensure freedom and opportunity endure. The crisis demands clarity. The IMF’s figures paint a stark picture: in advanced economies, nearly two-thirds of jobs could be affected, from routine tasks to high-skill professions. Austrian economics, rooted in entrepreneurial adaptation, suggests markets can respond, but not without deliberate steps to empower individuals. Left unchecked, mass unemployment risks desperation, eroding the liberty we cherish. We must act decisively, blending pragmatism with principle, to avoid a future where centralized power exploits economic chaos. Libertarianism prioritizes minimal government, rejecting heavy-handed policies like AI taxes that stifle innovation. Yet, the scale of this disruption calls for bold, market-compatible measures.

Friedrich Hayek, the Austrian economist, hinted at this balance in The Constitution of Liberty (1960), advocating a minimal income to prevent destitution while upholding market dynamics. Inspired by this, a universal basic income (UBI) intended to offer temporary stability amid the AI-driven job crisis is impractical, as funding through voluntary contributions—such as profits shared by firms across all industries benefiting from AI opting into a decentralized pool—cannot be sustained due to the absence of sufficient funds. This idea, while theoretically appealing, cannot be implemented in practice because no viable non-coercive revenue source exists, rendering it unfeasible regardless of libertarian compatibility.

Another game-changer lies in property rights, the cornerstone of Austrian and libertarian thought. Ludwig von Mises saw property as the foundation of markets, enabling prices to guide resources. Today, your data—your online habits, social media posts—is property, but tech giants like Google control it. Digital property rights, secured through blockchain or smart contracts, would let you own and monetize your data, creating income outside traditional jobs. Unlike traditional property, like land, digital property is intangible and often platform-locked, but it’s no less yours. By selling your data to advertisers or AI developers, you could earn a steady income, rooted in market-driven value, not state handouts. This empowers individuals, aligns with Austrian price mechanisms, and sidesteps dependency.

To turn this vision into reality, targeted actions can bolster freedom and resilience:

• Establish digital property rights via legislation and blockchain, enabling individuals to profit from their data in a free market.

• Deregulate startups by removing licensing barriers, fostering new industries as satellite data once spurred weather forecasting growth.

• Strengthen decentralized platforms to keep economic power with individuals, reducing the risk of authoritarian overreach.

• Encourage voluntary innovation hubs where communities and businesses collaborate to create new economic opportunities.

Government’s role remains limited: enact these frameworks—protecting rights, easing regulations—then step back. The market has always surprised us with adjustments once deemed impossible, or perhaps this marks the quiet end of libertarian ideals in the face of relentless automation. 

The Shiller P/E Ratio: A Simple Guide for Everyone

If you’ve ever wondered how to tell if the stock market is overpriced or a bargain, the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you’ll want to know about. It’s a popular way to measure the value of stocks, and it’s easier to understand than it sounds. In this article, we’ll break it down step-by-step: how it’s calculated, where you can find it, if it’s used beyond the S&P 500, and how to use it to guess what returns might look like. Let’s dive in!

1 How Is the Shiller P/E Ratio Calculated?

The Shiller P/E ratio, also called the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, was created by economist Robert Shiller. Unlike the regular P/E ratio, which just looks at a stock’s current price divided by its earnings from the past year, the Shiller version takes a longer view to smooth out the ups and downs.

Here’s how it works in simple steps:

- Step 1: Take the price of the S&P 500 (or another index or stock) right now.

- Step 2: Gather the earnings per share (EPS) for the past 10 years.

- Step 3: Adjust those earnings for inflation so they’re all in today’s dollars (this keeps things fair over time).

- Step 4: Average those 10 years of adjusted earnings.

- Step 5: Divide the current price by that 10-year average.

For example, if the S&P 500 is at 5,000 and its 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings is 150, the Shiller P/E would be 5,000 divided by 150 = 33.3. That’s it! The idea is to avoid getting thrown off by short-term booms or busts in earnings.

2 Where Can You Find It?

You don’t have to crunch the numbers yourself—plenty of free resources track the Shiller P/E ratio for you. Here are some great places to look:

- Multpl : A simple site with the current Shiller P/E and a chart going back over 100 years.

- GuruFocus: Offers the latest Shiller P/E for the S&P 500, plus other market insights.

3 Does It Exist for Other Markets?

Yes! While it’s most famous for the S&P 500, the Shiller P/E has been calculated for other markets too. Researchers and financial sites have applied it to indexes like the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and even international markets such as the UK’s FTSE 100, Japan’s Nikkei 225, and emerging markets. However, the data might not be as widely available or go back as far as it does for the S&P 500. Sites like GuruFocus or research papers from economists often include CAPE ratios for these other markets if you dig a little.

4 How to Use It: Ranges and Expected Returns

So, what does the Shiller P/E tell us? It’s like a thermometer for the stock market—higher numbers suggest stocks are expensive (overvalued), and lower numbers hint they’re cheap (undervalued). Over time, it’s been linked to future returns: when it’s high, expect lower returns over the next decade; when it’s low, expect higher ones. Here’s a simple guide:

Historical Average: Since the late 1800s, the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 has averaged around 16-17. Think of this as “normal.”

Ranges:

  - Below 15: Stocks are cheap! This has happened during big crashes, like 2008-2009 when it dipped to 13.

  - 15-25: Fair value territory—neither a steal nor overpriced. This is where it sits most of the time.

  - 25-35: Getting expensive. Investors are paying a premium, like in the mid-2010s or today (it’s around 33-35 in 2025).

  - Above 35: Very high! It hit 44 in 1999 before the dot-com crash and has only topped 35 a few times (1929, 2000, and recently).

Expected Returns Per Year:

  - Below 15: Historically, returns over the next 10-20 years averaged 8-10% per year or more.

  - 15-25: Returns drop to about 5-7% annually—still decent but not amazing.

  - 25-35: Expect 2-4% per year. That’s where we are now—modest growth ahead.

  - Above 35: Returns could be 0-2% or even negative, like after the 2000 peak.

For example, with a Shiller P/E of 33, history suggests S&P 500 returns might average 3-4% per year for the next decade—not terrible, but not the 10% many hope for. It’s a clue, not a crystal ball, so use it alongside other info.

P&F Charts: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Let’s talk about Point and Figure (PF or P&F) charts—a classic tool that’s been around forever but doesn’t always get the love it deserves. Unlike those flashy candlestick charts or time-bound bar charts, PF charts are all about price action. No time, no volume, just pure, unfiltered price movements. Sounds simple, right? Well, like any trading tool, it’s got its ups and downs. Let’s break it down: the good, the bad, and the ugly of using PF charts in the stock market.

The Good: Why Traders Love PF Charts 

1. Bye-Bye, Noise!

PF charts are like noise-canceling headphones for traders. They ignore all the tiny, meaningless price wiggles and focus only on the big moves. This makes it way easier to spot real trends without getting distracted by market drama.

2. Trends Made Simple

Upward trend? You’ll see a column of Xs. Downward trend? A column of Os. It’s that straightforward. No overthinking, no complicated patterns—just clear, visual signals.

3. Support and Resistance on Steroids

PF charts are great at showing where prices might bounce or break through. Because they’re not cluttered with time or volume, key levels pop out like neon signs.

4. No Time, No Problem

If you’re a long-term investor who doesn’t care about what happened at 10:32 a.m. last Tuesday, PF charts are your best friend. They don’t care about time—just price. Perfect for keeping your cool during short-term market chaos.

5. Customizable AF

You can tweak the box size (how much the price needs to move to plot an X or O) and reversal criteria (how much it needs to reverse to switch columns). This makes PF charts super flexible for different trading styles.

6. Price Targets You Can Actually Use

PF charts often give you clear price targets based on patterns like double tops or bottoms. No guessing games—just actionable info.

The Bad: Where P&F Charts Fall Short

 1. Where’s the Time?

The lack of time context can be a double-edged sword. Sure, it’s great for filtering noise, but it also means you can’t see when a price move happened. Momentum traders, this one’s not for you.

2. Not for Day Traders

If you’re into scalping or short-term trading, PF charts might feel like trying to use a sledgehammer to crack a nut. They’re better for the big picture, not micro-movements.

3. Settings Can Be Tricky

Choosing the right box size and reversal criteria is key—but it’s also subjective. Pick the wrong settings, and your chart could give you garbage signals. It takes practice to get it right.

4. Missing Pieces

PF charts ignore volume and time, which can be a dealbreaker for traders who rely on those factors. If you’re a volume junkie, you’ll feel like something’s missing.

The Ugly: The Learning Curve

Let’s be real—PF charts aren’t the easiest to master. If you’re used to candlesticks or bars, the whole Xs and Os thing can feel like learning a new language. Plus, they’re not as popular as other chart types, so finding resources or communities to help you out can be tough.

So, Should You Use PF Charts?

Here’s the deal: PF charts are awesome if you’re a trend-focused trader or a long-term investor who wants to cut through the noise. They’re simple, objective, and great for spotting key levels and targets. But if you’re a short-term trader or rely heavily on volume and timing, they might not be your cup of tea. If you want you can play around with the settings, see if they vibe with your trading style, and decide for yourself. After all, the best tool is the one that works for you.

Hedging Your Portfolio with Reverse ETFs

When your outlook on the stock market turns bearish, selling your entire portfolio (or part of it) isn't the only option to reduce risk. A practical alternative is investing in a reverse or inverse ETF, which profits when the market declines. These ETFs are traded like regular ETFs through any broker and offer a straightforward way to hedge against market downturns.

Using Reverse ETFs Conservatively 

The primary use of a reverse ETF is to hedge your portfolio, not to speculate on market declines. Here's an example:

- Portfolio: $100,000 in stocks and $50,000 in cash.

- Hedge: Allocate $20,000 to a 3x leveraged reverse ETF.

This hedge provides approximate coverage for market drops, as the ETF is designed to move inversely to the market on a daily basis. While the calculation isn't perfect—because reverse ETFs are optimized for daily performance—the hedge can offset some losses if the market falls.

Which Reverse ETF Should You Buy? 

Choose the ETF that matches the market or sector you expect to decline the most. For example, if you anticipate the Nasdaq dropping more than the general market, you might consider a reverse ETF tied to that index. Leveraged options (e.g., 2x or 3x) amplify gains and losses, making them more volatile but potentially more effective for hedging small cash allocations.

Key Considerations

- Reverse ETFs are meant for short-term strategies, as their performance may deviate from expectations over longer periods.

- Not for Speculation: These are tools for protection, not gambling on a bear market.

- Alternative Protection: Selling part of your portfolio remains a valid option for managing risk.

For those interested, here’s a link to tickers of commonly used inverse ETFs.

Are they really fighting?

Take a look at this chart. It's a visualization of the S&P 500 divided by the price of gold—basically, what happens when you price the stock market in gold instead of dollars. The result? A story of financial cycles that many miss if they only focus on stocks or only on gold. This chart doesn’t just show market moves; it shows when one asset reigns supreme over the other.

In times when the line trends upwards, it's better to own stocks. Confidence is high, economies are expanding, and the return on equities outpaces the stability gold offers. But when the chart takes a sharp dive? That’s gold's time to shine. These moments represent financial turbulence, recession fears, or market corrections, where investors seek safety in gold’s enduring value.

Now, here's the kicker. Many analysts believe we’re on the verge of another significant downward leg in this chart. If that proves true, it would mean a shift in favor of gold over stocks—a warning shot for those clinging too tightly to equities. But let’s be clear, nothing is certain. What this chart does tell us is that these shifts happen, and when they do, it’s dramatic. Watching for these changes can make all the difference.

That said, it’s not about being all in on gold or stocks. The real strategy is balance. Holding both assets in a portfolio, but adjusting the weight depending on which part of the cycle we're in, is the key. Early in a downward segment? You might tilt toward gold. In the upswing? It’s time for equities to shine. Finding the exact mix is very complicated. What matters is to have the foresight to adjust the desired percentage with the cycles.

This isn’t advice—it’s a reminder to watch the clues, understand the patterns, and adjust your strategy before the next shift catches you off guard.

UGL?

UGL, the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF, offers investors a unique way to gain exposure to the gold market by aiming to deliver twice the daily performance of the price of gold bullion. Grosso modo, this means that for every 1% movement in the price of gold, UGL is expected to move 2% in the same direction. UGL can be easily traded through most brokers, making it accessible for those looking to leverage their position in gold without the need to trade gold futures or other more complex financial instruments.

As a leveraged ETF, UGL amplifies the movements of gold, providing the potential for greater gains, but also greater losses. However, caution is essential when considering UGL due to its leveraged nature. The double-exposure means that while profits can be significantly higher, the risks are equally elevated, making UGL suitable primarily for investors who are aware of the dynamics of leveraged ETFs and who can tolerate higher levels of volatility.

It's important to understand that UGL is designed for short-term trading rather than long-term holding due to the compounding effects that can erode returns over time if the underlying asset experiences fluctuations.

Currently, UGL may not be the most opportune investment. We feel its potential will shine more brightly if gold retests the broken resistance level. If gold experiences a minor retracement, bringing it back to test a previous resistance level that it has surpassed, UGL could become an attractive vehicle to capitalize on the subsequent rebound. This strategy hinges on timing the market effectively, as the leverage involved requires careful consideration of entry and exit points to maximize potential returns while mitigating the heightened risk.

Zimbabwe’s new gamble

Zimbabwe has a long and troubled history with its currency. After a period of hyperinflation in the early 2000s, the country abandoned its currency in 2009 and switched to a multi-currency system dominated by the US dollar. However, economic woes persisted, leading to the reintroduction of a local currency, the Zimbabwean dollar (ZWL), in 2019. Unfortunately, this attempt backfired, causing renewed inflation.

In April 2024, Zimbabwe took another stab at currency reform with the launch of the ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold). This time, they're hoping a gold-backed currency will be the answer.

The ZiG: A New Approach

Unlike previous currencies, the ZiG is backed by a "basket" of assets, including:

- Foreign currency reserves: US$285 million at launch, raising concerns about its adequacy.

- Gold: 2.5 tonnes of gold currently held by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), with plans to increase gold production and channel it into the reserves.

- Other precious metals and minerals: Platinum, lithium, and diamonds mined in Zimbabwe could also contribute to the reserves.

The ZiG's value is tied to the price of gold and a comparison of inflation rates between the ZiG and the US dollar. This, in theory, should provide stability and prevent hyperinflation. Link here.

Can the ZiG Succeed Where Others Failed?

Skeptics abound. Critics point to the following weaknesses:

- Insufficient reserves: The current reserve value is considered too low to provide real import cover or meet regional liquidity recommendations.

- Government mismanagement: Zimbabwe's history of economic troubles raises doubts about the government's ability to manage the ZiG effectively.

- Lack of trust: Years of currency instability have eroded public trust in Zimbabwean currency.

A Glimmer of Hope?

Despite the criticism, there are some potential positives:

- Gold-backing: Gold is a historically stable store of value, and linking the ZiG to it could provide some stability.

- Increased gold production: Zimbabwe's plans to boost gold production could strengthen the ZiG's reserves in the long run.

The Verdict: Too Early to Tell

The success of the ZiG remains to be seen. Only time will tell if it can overcome public skepticism and become a stable and trusted currency.

Portfolio review

As you can see on the right, Portfolio Model, our portfolio is based on hedging risks. It includes stocks, gold and cash or short-term bonds.

In general, the performance is good: last year it returned 7.2% and this current year around 3% so far, basically due to the good behavior of gold.

Our 2 ETFs to track the stock market haven’t been the greatest, but they invest in solid business which pay dividends (DTN 2.7% and DOO 3.9%).

Gold finally decided to move upwards and now it is trading in uncharted territory. We still believe this is just the beginning:

As always, this is not a recommendation at all, but just a theoretical study of how gold and stocks combined can hedge market risks.

Business opportunities in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked country in the world, has been steadily attracting attention from international investors due to its abundant natural resources, strategic location, and efforts to bolster its economic infrastructure. As the nation continues to enhance its global presence, with increased international flights and growing traction on the global stage, let's delve into the strengths, weaknesses, and emerging trends that shape investment opportunities in Kazakhstan.

Strengths

- Rich Natural Resources: Kazakhstan boasts significant reserves of oil, natural gas, minerals, and metals, positioning itself as a key player in the global energy and mining sectors. Investors eyeing opportunities in these industries find Kazakhstan particularly appealing due to its vast resource potential.

- Geopolitical Importance: Situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan serves as a crucial link in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China's ambitious infrastructure and economic development project. This strategic location offers immense opportunities for trade, investment, and regional cooperation.

- Economic Diversification Efforts: Recognizing the need to reduce reliance on extractive industries, Kazakhstan has been actively diversifying its economy. Initiatives such as the "Nurly Zhol" infrastructure program and the "Digital Kazakhstan" strategy aim to foster innovation, entrepreneurship, and modernization across various sectors.

- Political Stability: Kazakhstan has maintained political stability since gaining independence in 1991, providing a favorable environment for business and investment. The government's commitment to economic reforms and attracting foreign investment further bolsters investor confidence.

- Growing International Connectivity: The expansion of international flights to and from Kazakhstan's major cities, including Nur-Sultan and Almaty, reflects the country's increasing integration into the global economy. Improved air connectivity facilitates business travel, tourism, and trade, enhancing Kazakhstan's appeal to international investors.

Weaknesses

- Bureaucratic Hurdles: Despite efforts to streamline regulations and improve the ease of doing business, bureaucratic red tape remains a challenge for investors in Kazakhstan. Complex administrative procedures and inconsistent enforcement of laws can impede business operations and investment decisions.

- Infrastructure Development: While Kazakhstan has made significant investments in infrastructure, particularly in urban centers, there is still room for improvement, especially in rural areas. Issues such as inadequate transportation networks and outdated facilities may hinder long-term economic growth and development.

- Dependence on Commodity Prices: The Kazakh economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices, given its heavy reliance on extractive industries. Diversification efforts are underway, but reducing this dependency remains a pressing challenge for sustainable economic development.

 

- Corruption Concerns: Corruption, although declining, continues to pose risks to businesses operating in Kazakhstan. Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index highlights ongoing challenges related to corruption, which could deter some investors despite governmental efforts to address this issue.

- Human Capital Development: Investing in education and skill development is crucial for nurturing a competitive workforce and fostering innovation. While Kazakhstan has made strides in this area, there is still a need for further investment in education, training, and research to meet the demands of a modern economy.

Emerging Trends

- Renewable Energy: Kazakhstan is increasingly focusing on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power to diversify its energy mix and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Investors keen on sustainability and green technologies are exploring opportunities in this burgeoning sector.

- Technology and Innovation: As mentioned above, the government's "Digital Kazakhstan" initiative aims to promote technological innovation and digitalization across various industries. This presents opportunities for investors in sectors such as information technology, telecommunications, and e-commerce.

- Tourism Development: Kazakhstan's rich cultural heritage, stunning landscapes, and emerging tourism infrastructure are attracting attention from international travelers and investors alike. Investments in hospitality, leisure, and ecotourism are expected to grow as the country promotes itself as a tourist destination.

- Logistics and Transportation: With its strategic location and growing trade volumes, Kazakhstan is investing in transportation infrastructure, including roads, railways, and logistics hubs. This presents opportunities for investors in transportation, warehousing, and supply chain management services.

- Regional Integration: Kazakhstan's participation in regional economic blocs such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) enhances its economic integration with neighboring countries. Investors can leverage Kazakhstan's position as a gateway to markets in Central Asia and beyond.

Kazakhstan offers a compelling investment landscape characterized by abundant natural resources, strategic positioning, and ongoing efforts to diversify its economy. While challenges such as bureaucratic hurdles and dependence on commodity prices persist, emerging trends in renewable energy, technology, tourism, and regional integration present exciting opportunities for forward-thinking investors seeking to capitalize on Kazakhstan's potential for growth and development. As the country continues to garner international traction and enhance its connectivity, it remains poised to attract investment across various sectors in the years to come.

Loss aversion. Flip for it

In the realm of wealth and extravagance, few tales rival the legendary stories of Kerry Packer, the media magnate and influential force in Australia. His journey, marked by a net worth of $6.5 billion and unparalleled broadcast rights, was one of opulence and audacity, leaving an indelible mark on the world of finance. This narrative isn't about triumphing over adversities like polio, dyslexia, or a challenging upbringing under Sir Frank Packer. Nor is it a detailed account of business strategies leading to the transformation of a $100 million family estate into a media empire. Instead, it's an exploration of the essence of money and the often-unseen force that influences our financial decisions—loss aversion.

In the annals of Kerry Packer's escapades, one particular incident stands out—a clash with a boastful Texan that demonstrated Packer's mastery over the game of wealth. Mirage Resorts boss Bobby Baldwin recounted an encounter where Packer, seeking solitude at a gambling table, was confronted by the Texan, determined to join the game. "I'm a big player too. I'm worth $100 million," declared the Texan. Without hesitation, Packer pulled out a coin and proposed, "I'll flip you for it."

In a single audacious move, Packer encapsulated a mindset that transcends financial gamesmanship—a fearless approach to risk, embracing uncertainty rather than succumbing to it. This story offers a unique lens to delve into the psychology of loss aversion, a powerful human instinct that often leads us to cling to losing stocks or overpay for insurance premiums.

Loss aversion, the instinct to avoid losses at all costs, can cloud our judgment and hinder our financial decisions. It's a phenomenon that compels us to hold on to depreciating assets and investments, fearing the regret of potential losses. However, the story of Kerry Packer suggests an alternative perspective—a realization that, in the grand scheme, we don't truly own anything. Packer's willingness to flip a coin for a high-stakes decision mirrors a mindset that acknowledges the impermanence of wealth.

Perhaps the antidote to loss aversion lies in understanding that possessions and financial gains are fleeting. Embracing this realization allows us to navigate the game of money with a clearer perspective, making decisions based on calculated risk rather than fear. In the end, Kerry Packer's legacy extends beyond his financial empire; it's a testament to the mindset that transcends the fear of loss. As we navigate the complex landscape of wealth, let us draw inspiration from the audacity of Packer's coin flip and approach our financial decisions with a balanced understanding of risk and impermanence.

How global distress drives up gold prices

Throughout history, gold has held a special place as a safe haven for investors during times of global distress. When political tensions escalate, conflicts erupt, or economic uncertainties loom, gold tends to shine as a valuable asset, leading to a surge in its price. This article explores the intricate relationship between global distress, especially during wars and other turbulent times, and the rise of gold prices, with real-world examples from history.

1. The Gold Rush During World War II

World War II serves as a prime example of how global distress can significantly impact gold prices. As the war escalated and governments sought to finance their military efforts, they printed more money, leading to inflation. In such times, investors and individuals turned to gold as a reliable store of value. The price of gold skyrocketed from $20.67 per ounce in 1939 to $35 per ounce by 1944, mainly due to its role as a hedge against currency devaluation.

2. The Oil Crisis and the Iranian Revolution

In the 1970s, the world witnessed a surge in gold prices following the oil crisis and the Iranian Revolution. Oil prices skyrocketed, and political turmoil in the Middle East created uncertainty in the global economy. As a result, gold's value soared, reaching an all-time high of around $850 per ounce in 1980. Investors flocked to gold as a safe asset during these turbulent times.

3. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008

The 2008 global financial crisis is a modern example of how gold responds to distress. As banks collapsed, stock markets tumbled, and economies faced turmoil, gold prices surged. During this period, gold prices reached new heights, peaking at over $1,900 per ounce in 2011. Investors sought the stability and security that gold provided during uncertain economic times.

4. Recent Turbulence and Gold's Resilience

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent economic fallout also highlighted gold's enduring appeal. As stock markets experienced extreme volatility and governments implemented massive economic stimulus packages, investors turned to gold as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies. Gold prices hit record highs, exceeding $2,000 per ounce in August 2020.

Throughout history, the price of gold has consistently shown an upward trajectory during times of global distress, including wars, economic crises, and political upheavals. Gold's remarkable performance during these tumultuous periods underscores its role as a proxy for the perception of the importance of negative events. When the world faces uncertainty and instability, gold's value tends to surge, reflecting the collective sentiment of investors seeking a safe haven for their wealth.

As the world becomes more interconnected and vulnerable to various forms of unrest, gold continues to be a valuable asset for those seeking stability and a refuge for their investments. While gold prices can be influenced by a variety of factors, its role as a store of value during turbulent times remains a testament to its enduring appeal in an uncertain world.

Shrinkflation: when less is hidden in more

In the world of consumer goods, appearances can often be deceiving. One such deceptive trend that has been garnering attention is the phenomenon known as "shrinkflation." At first glance, the term might seem like a playful linguistic invention, but its implications are far from harmless. Shrinkflation is a cunning practice employed by manufacturers to maintain profit margins while discreetly reducing the size or quantity of a product, all while keeping the price constant. This crafty maneuver leaves consumers paying the same amount for less product, sparking concerns not only about financial fairness but also its environmental consequences.Imagine the scenario: a long-beloved chocolate bar that used to satisfy your sweet tooth suddenly feels disappointingly small, yet its price remains unchanged. Or a bag of chips that once overflowed now barely manages to fill your palm, but your wallet feels just as light as before. This is shrinkflation at work. Manufacturers resort to this strategy as a way to tackle rising production costs, such as raw materials, transportation, and labor. Rather than raising the price outright, they downsize the product, hoping consumers won't immediately notice the difference.

Shrinkflation doesn't only affect our wallets; it also contributes to an increase in waste and packaging materials. As containers remain the same size while the contents shrink, a concerning gap between perception and reality emerges. This mismatch often leads consumers to purchase more than they need, believing they are getting the same quantity as before. Consequently, more goods are consumed and more waste is generated, resulting in a negative impact on the environment.

The link between shrinkflation and waste is rooted in psychology. Known as the "size-contrast illusion," our brains tend to judge the quantity of a product based on the package's size rather than the actual contents. When these packages appear unchanged, we unconsciously assume they contain the same amount as before. However, this optical illusion doesn't just affect our purchasing decisions; it also fuels overconsumption and unnecessary waste generation.

In light of these practices, consumers are encouraged to adopt a vigilant approach. While it may be challenging to spot shrinkflation immediately, there are steps one can take to make more informed choices. One strategy is to verify the price per unit, weight, or volume. Focusing on these metrics allows consumers to compare products more accurately and gauge whether the product's value has genuinely changed. Additionally, it's essential to remain skeptical of drastic changes in packaging design or brand positioning. These may signal an attempt to divert attention from the actual reduction in content. Staying informed about the products you regularly purchase and their typical sizes can also help you quickly recognize any subtle alterations.

Navigating the changing World order

Allow us to provide a brief overview of the projected changes in country rankings by 2050, based on various sources including PwC's "The World in 2050" report. According to these projections, China is expected to ascend to the position of the world's largest economy by 2050, surpassing the United States. This shift is driven by China's ongoing economic growth, population size, and increasing productivity. India is also anticipated to rise significantly and potentially become the third-largest economy globally, following China and the United States.

Furthermore, other emerging economies such as Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico are expected to experience substantial growth and climb the rankings. Meanwhile, developed economies like Japan and those in Western Europe may see a relative decline in their positions. It is important to note that these projections are subject to various factors and uncertainties, and future outcomes may differ from these estimates.

Nevertheless, recognizing the potential changes in country rankings provides retail investors with valuable insights for identifying investment opportunities and adjusting their strategies accordingly. In this article, we will explore practical ideas for retail investors seeking to profit in the stock market amidst the changing world order.

1. Embrace Emerging Markets:

With the projected rise of emerging economies like China, India, and Indonesia, retail investors can consider diversifying their portfolios by investing in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that focus on these growing markets. These countries boast substantial consumer bases and expanding middle classes, offering investment opportunities in various sectors.

2. Technology and Innovation:

Technological advancements continue to disrupt industries worldwide. Investors can focus on companies at the forefront of innovation, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, biotechnology, and fintech. Investing in technology-focused ETFs or individual stocks within these sectors can offer opportunities for substantial growth and profitability.

3. Infrastructure Development:

As countries invest in infrastructure projects to drive economic growth, retail investors can explore opportunities in construction, engineering, and related sectors. Investing in ETFs that track infrastructure indices or individual companies involved in large-scale infrastructure projects can potentially yield favorable returns as governments allocate resources to develop vital transportation, energy, and communication networks.

4. Diversification through Global ETFs:

In an increasingly interconnected world, diversification remains crucial for mitigating risks. Retail investors can consider investing in globally diversified ETFs that provide exposure to a broad range of international markets. These ETFs can help balance portfolios and capture opportunities across different regions and sectors.

5. Long-Term Focus:

Given the projected changes in the world order, it is essential for retail investors to maintain a long-term perspective. Rather than succumbing to short-term market fluctuations, adopting a disciplined investment approach and staying informed about global trends can help navigate the evolving landscape successfully.